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Argentina vs. Canada Odds, Picks & Predictions: Copa America 2024 Semifinals

Young Quigley

Updated on July 9, 2024 at 12:44 PM EDT • Read time: 2 minutes and 51 seconds. Links to Twitter and Google News available.

Argentina forward Lionel Messi ( plays the ball against Canada defender Moise Bombito as we look at our best Argentina vs. Canada prediction
Argentina forward Lionel Messi ( plays the ball against Canada defender Moise Bombito during the second half at Mercedez-Benz Stadium. Photo by: Dale Zanine/USA TODAY Sports.

Lionel Messi is close to reaching another important international final, but Argentina must first face a determined Canada team that has been dreaming big. Despite losing to La Albiceleste in their first game, the Canucks have remained undefeated throughout the Copa America tournament.

Argentina is heavily favored to win the match at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on Tuesday, with -286 odds according to Betway. This will be their seventh semifinal appearance in the last eight tournaments.

Canada, a +800 underdog who has never participated in the Copa America, has never scored against the reigning champions, Argentina. Can they shock the world by pulling off an upset?

Argentina vs. Canada predictions for Tuesday

Betway’s odds for Argentina vs. Canada; rate your confidence with a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

Argentina vs. Canada score prediction

Argentina 2 vs. Canada 0

In official competitions, Argentina has emerged victorious in their last 10 matches against Concacaf opponents. They have maintained a clean sheet in the last six matches, a streak that dates back to 2011. Canada has never managed to score against La Albiceleste in their four previous encounters, including two matches at the Pan American Games in the 1970s.

In three out of the four games played between these nations, Argentina has emerged victorious with a score of 2-0. The world champions have scored a total of 11 goals and only conceded two in their last 10 games across all competitions. In contrast, the Canucks have only managed to score twice and have let in seven goals during the same period.

Argentina, under head coach Lionel Scaloni, has reached the semifinals for the fourth consecutive time in both the Copa America and World Cup. Their impressive form and experience make them the favorites for a comfortable victory over the debutants in the Copa America.

Betway offers the best odds at +450, implying a probability of 18.2%.

Argentina vs. Canada anytime goal scorer prediction

Lautaro Martinez, Argentina

Martinez is currently the top goal scorer in the Copa America, having scored four goals. Venezuela’s Solomon Rondon was his closest competitor with three goals, but Canada knocked out his team in the previous round. Martinez has a shooting accuracy of 50% and is averaging a goal every 47 minutes in this tournament.

He has been a key player for Argentina’s offense in recent matches, stepping up in Lionel Messi’s absence due to injury. The Inter Milan forward has scored six goals in his last six games for his national team, including one against Canada at the beginning of this tournament.

His deadly accuracy and readiness to pull the trigger could propel them into the final on Tuesday night. I provide a more detailed analysis of this in my player props for the Argentina vs. Canada match.

Greatest chance of winning: Even odds at +100 with Betway | Probability of winning: 50%

Argentina vs. Canada best bet

Argentina 3-way handicap (-1)

La Albiceleste have been nearly unbeatable since their victory in the 2022 World Cup.

In their last 18 matches across all competitions, they have only suffered one defeat, winning 16 games in regular time and only allowing five goals. Their quarterfinal win against Ecuador was secured through a penalty shootout after a 1-1 draw in regulation. On the other hand, Canada has only managed to win one of their last six matches in regular time, which was a 1-0 victory over Peru in the second game of the tournament.

Les Rouges have scored twice in the last six matches, while Argentina has only let in one goal throughout the competition. They kept a clean sheet against the Canucks in the first game.

In their last three Copa America matches against Venezuela, Chile, and Peru, Canada outperformed their opponents in generating expected goals. The only team to surpass them in this metric during the tournament was Argentina in their first match, with a 3xG to 1.2 xG ratio.

Canada has had an impressive journey, but Argentina, led by Messi, Martinez, and their team, will demonstrate their top ranking in the world as they secure a spot in Sunday’s final and cover the spread.

Top odds: +105 at Betway | Probability implied: 48.8%

Argentina vs. Canada odds & game info

TeamBetway
Argentina-286
Canada+800
  • When: Tuesday, July 9
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
  • How to watch: TSN
  • Favorite: Argentina (-286 via Betway)

Predictions for the Argentina vs. Canada match were made on Monday at 3:30 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Young Quigley
Young Quigley has worked in the sports industry for more than 20 years. He’s reported on Premier League games for BBC radio and continues to cover the league, as well as other high-profile soccer competitions such as the UEFA Champions League. He is a founding member of the NFL Writers Network with NFL Europe, having covered every NFL London game since 2014 and multiple Super Bowls. Anthony has also reported on the Germany games in Munich and Frankfurt. His book, “The Greatest American Football Story That Has Never Been Told”, has been an Amazon bestseller for American Football and Sports History publications. He is a member of the Professional Football Researchers Association. Anthony started writing for betting companies in 2018, working with some of the world’s largest gambling sites. He is an avid bettor on soccer and football, using multiple apps as he targets the best value on props and plays. Anthony is the host of the “TransAtlantic Sports Show” podcast and runs a weekly parlay feature on his YouTube channel throughout the NFL season. He has appeared on leading international podcasts such as the BBC World Service’s Sportshour, the Nat Coombs Show, and the Irish NFL Show. Anthony holds a bachelor’s degree in media from Sheffield Hallam University.