Euro 2024 Quarterfinal Predictions: 5 Teams Ranked in World’s Top 10 Fight To Make Final Four
The upcoming matches on Friday and Saturday are filled with exciting matchups as we analyze the Euro 2024 quarterfinals and make predictions using the odds from top soccer betting websites.
As the Euro 2024 quarterfinals approach, fans of chalk will find themselves with an abundance of it, more than they could ever imagine needing.
Five of the top 10 teams in the world (England, France, Spain, Portugal, and the Netherlands) will battle for a spot in the semifinals, as hosts Germany, Turkey, and Switzerland have a chance to make a lasting impression.
Based on the Euro 2024 odds, England is slightly favored, with Spain, Germany, and France closely behind.
Spain and Germany will face off in the first quarterfinal on Friday, followed by Portugal and France in another powerhouse matchup. These four teams are on the same side of a bracket that is as stacked as a tower of pancakes leaning like the Tower of Pisa.
Saturday will see England take on Switzerland and the Netherlands go up against Turkey on the other side of the bracket. Stay tuned for our predictions for the Euro 2024 quarterfinals.
Euro 2024 quarterfinal matchups, odds, predictions
- Spain vs. Germany (Friday, noon ET)
- Portugal vs. France (Friday, 3 p.m. ET)
- England vs. Switzerland (Saturday, noon ET)
- Netherlands vs. Turkey (Saturday, 3 p.m. ET)
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Spain vs. Germany
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | +170 | +165 | +160 | +170 | +162 |
| Germany | +180 | +180 | +175 | +175 | +175 |
| ML tie | +220 | +210 | +220 | +210 | +220 |
Statistical comparison
| Spain | Germany | |
|---|---|---|
| World ranking | 8 | 16 |
| Goals for | 9 (2nd) | 10 (1st) |
| Goals against | 1 | 2 |
| Shot attempts | 84 (1st) | 71 (3rd) |
| Shots on target | 29 (1st) | 28 (2nd) |
| Expected goals for | 10.07 (1st) | 8.77 (2nd) |
| Expected goals against | 3.11 (2nd) | 3.98 (8th) |
| Passing accuracy | 91% (2nd) | 92.3% (1st) |
| Possession | 58.5% (4th) | 62% (2nd) |
| Crosses attempted | 77 (T-4th) | 82 (3rd) |
| Crosses completed | 26 (3rd) | 23 (4th) |
| Free kicks taken | 39 (T-18th) | 52 (8th) |
Spain vs. Germany prediction
It is unfortunate that one of these teams will be eliminated from the tournament. Both teams have excelled in many aspects, especially offensively. Germany will have the advantage of having over 55,000 supporters cheering loudly for them.
Spain’s impressive performance suggests that Germany may require extra support. The attacking trio of Nico Williams, Lamine Yamal, and Álvaro Morata embodies a blend of speed, youthfulness, and veteran expertise.
For Germany to counteract Williams and Yamal’s rapid pace, the central defensive duo of Antonio Rüdiger and Jonathan Tah must be on top of their game in terms of anticipation. However, Spain holds a clear advantage in this aspect, which could ultimately make the difference.
If Spain advances, a $10 bet with FanDuel’s -115 odds will result in a profit of $8.70.
Top pick: Spain to progress (-115 on FanDuel) | Probability of success: 53.49%
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Portugal vs. France
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | +235 | +240 | +230 | +240 | +240 |
| France | +140 | +135 | +135 | +135 | +135 |
| ML tie | +200 | +190 | +200 | +190 | +200 |
Statistical comparison
| Portugal | France | |
|---|---|---|
| World ranking | 6 | 2 |
| Goals for | 5 (T-7th) | 3 (T-12th) |
| Goals against | 3 | 1 |
| Shot attempts | 74 (2nd) | 69 (3rd) |
| Shots on target | 21 (4th) | 16 (T-9th) |
| Expected goals for | 7.92 (4th) | 6.94 (7th) |
| Expected goals against | 3.2 (4th) | 3.18 (3rd) |
| Passing accuracy | 89.5% (T-4th) | 90.5% (3rd) |
| Possession | 65.3% (1st) | 53.8% (T-7th) |
| Crosses attempted | 123 (1st) | 75 (7th) |
| Crosses completed | 29 (1st) | 19 (T-8th) |
| Free kicks taken | 53 (T-5th) | 57 (2nd) |
Portugal vs. France prediction
The rematch of the 2016 Euro final features two teams that have not consistently performed at their best in Euro 2024. France has reached the quarterfinals with a strong defense that has only allowed one goal in four matches, none of which have been from open play. Poland was able to score against France through a penalty kick in their last group-stage match.
On the other hand, France has not been able to score from open play, instead depending on a Kylian Mbappe penalty and two own goals – one of which ultimately determined their victory against Belgium in the Round of 16.
Portugal failed to score in their last two matches but managed to defeat Slovenia in penalties. I find it hard to believe that France will not score at least one goal from open play at Euro 2024, especially with Mbappe leading the way, even though his performance in the tournament has been disappointing.
Nevertheless, Mbappe showed improvement in the match against Belgium and consistently posed a threat to the opposition. Despite missing two shots on goal, he had his most impressive performance of the tournament following a setback from a broken nose in the first game.
He is the game-changer I believe will turn the tide. Cristiano Ronaldo faltered in front of goal against Slovenia, mirroring Mbappe’s struggles. However, Mbappe’s explosiveness sets him apart and he has the ability to carve out opportunities to deliver the winning goal, ideally before overtime.
A $10 bet will result in a $14 profit if successful.
Top choice: France Moneyline at odds of +140 on DraftKings, which implies a probability of 41.67%.
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England vs. Switzerland
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | +120 | +120 | +120 | +125 | +120 |
| Switzerland | +290 | +280 | +270 | +280 | +280 |
| ML tie | +195 | +195 | +200 | +185 | +200 |
Statistical comparison
| England | Switzerland | |
|---|---|---|
| World ranking | 5 | 19 |
| Goals for | 4 (T-9th) | 7 (T-3rd) |
| Goals against | 2 | 3 |
| Shot attempts | 44 (12th) | 46 (11th) |
| Shots on target | 12 (T-17th) | 18 (T-7th) |
| Expected goals for | 5.23 (11th) | 5.08 (T-12th) |
| Expected goals against | 3.27 (5th) | 5.25 (13th) |
| Passing accuracy | 89.5% (T-4th) | 85.3% (14th) |
| Possession | 60.5% (3rd) | 48% (15th) |
| Crosses attempted | 64 (13th) | 46 (18th) |
| Crosses completed | 17 (11th) | 5 (24th) |
| Free kicks taken | 66 (1st) | 53 (T-5th) |
England vs. Switzerland prediction
Switzerland poses a formidable challenge for England, who narrowly avoided defeat in the Round of 16 with a spectacular last-minute goal from Jude Bellingham against Slovakia. While England may dominate possession, Switzerland is adept at playing on the counterattack and will not be intimidated.
The Three Lions have had the third-highest possession in this tournament but have only managed to get 12 shots on target, placing them 17th in the rankings. Switzerland, on the other hand, have scored seven goals, tying for the third-highest number of goals, despite only attempting 46 shots, which is the 11th most in the tournament.
If England improves their finishing and increases the pace of their passing with more direct, one-two combinations, Switzerland may struggle to defend deep and absorb pressure. Switzerland’s strong performances against Italy and Germany, combined with their current good form, should continue in this exciting quarterfinal match.
I prefer the moneyline tie, with England edging out in extra time. If it comes down to penalties, Switzerland has the upper hand. A $10 bet will earn a $20 profit.
Top choice: ML tie (+200 odds on bet365) | Probability of occurrence: 33.33%
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Netherlands vs. Turkey
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | -170 | -170 | -159 | -170 | -175 |
| Turkey | +475 | +500 | +425 | +450 | +500 |
| ML tie | +320 | +300 | +300 | +300 | +290 |
Statistical comparison
| Netherlands | Turkey | |
|---|---|---|
| World ranking | 7 | 42 |
| Goals for | 7 (T-3rd) | 7 (T-3rd) |
| Goals against | 4 | 6 |
| Shot attempts | 63 (5th) | 56 (6th) |
| Shots on target | 16 (T-9th) | 19 (6th) |
| Expected goals for | 8.32 (3rd) | 6.24 (8th) |
| Expected goals against | 4.07 (9th) | 8.54 (23rd) |
| Passing accuracy | 88.3% (8th) | 86.5% (12th) |
| Possession | 55% (6th) | 50.3% (14th) |
| Crosses attempted | 77 (T-4th) | 50 (12th) |
| Crosses completed | 21 (T-5th) | 19 (T-8th) |
| Free kicks taken | 45 (13th) | 50 (10th) |
Netherlands vs. Turkey prediction
The quarterfinal between the Netherlands and Turkey appears to be the most one-sided matchup, at least based on the teams’ performances so far. Turkey has done well to reach this stage and is expected to put up another strong performance.
On the offensive end, Turkey has brought a new energy and excitement, as delightful and enticing as a Turkish Delight. They have a good chance of scoring against a Dutch team that is weak defensively, despite having the most talented individual defenders in the tournament.
Nevertheless, the Netherlands kicked into high gear against Romania in the Round of 16. It must be acknowledged that the Romanians were clearly not as strong as the other teams Holland had encountered. Despite this, Holland played with freedom and creativity, generating numerous opportunities to score multiple goals.
I anticipate that the Dutch team will perform even better against a Turkish team that has the potential to cause an upset. I predict that there will be several goals in this match, with the Oranje advancing after the full 90 minutes. A successful $10 bet will result in a profit of $9.26.
Top choice: Bet on Netherlands to win with over 1.5 goals (-108 at BetMGM) | Probability of success: 51.92%
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