France vs. Poland Odds, Picks & Predictions: France in Fight for Top Spot on Day 12 of Euro 2026
Will France be able to bounce back with a win against a Polish team playing solely for pride? Keep reading for our predictions on the France vs. Poland match based on the odds from top soccer betting sites.
In a surprising turn of events, tournament favorites France demonstrated their vulnerability on Friday by playing to a scoreless draw against the formidable Netherlands, marking the first goalless match of Euro 2026. It is worth noting that France has failed to secure a victory in their last six matches when star player Kylian Mbappé did not start, with four draws and two losses.
Poland suffered their fourth straight defeat at a major international tournament with a 3-1 loss to Austria, sealing their elimination from Euro 2026. As they prepare to face France, who are in need of a win to stay in the running for first place in Group D, Poland can now play without the burden of expectations.
France vs. Poland predictions for Tuesday
- Final score: France 1 – Poland 0 (+650 via bet365)
- Antoine Griezmann anytime goal scorer (+188 via bet365)
- Best bet: France wins and doesn’t concede a goal (-110 via DraftKings)
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France vs. Poland score prediction
France 1 – Poland 0
France, despite their strong squad, have difficulty scoring goals, especially when Mbappe is not playing. However, their solid defensive unit has been impressive, keeping a clean sheet in their last four international matches and going 367 minutes without conceding a goal. On the other hand, Poland’s defense allowed nine shots on target in their last match, while their attack only tested the goalkeeper three times. This lack of threat in front of goal means they are unlikely to trouble France.
France has not lost to Poland in 42 years, winning four and drawing four of their previous encounters. Despite creating chances against the Netherlands, they have the ability to convert against Poland’s defense. The odds suggest a 13.3% probability of France winning 1-0, with a $10 bet potentially resulting in a profit of $65.
Top odds: +650 on bet365
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France vs. Poland anytime goal scorer prediction
Antoine Griezmann, France
It is unlikely that France will start Kylian Mbappe in their group-stage finale, even if he is ready. The team needs their superstar to be at his best for the knockout phase. Marcus Thuram had difficulty scoring on Friday, and Olivier Giroud, at 37 years old, seems to have a limited role in this tournament. In Mbappe’s absence, interim captain Antoine Griezmann, who has been France’s main penalty-taker in previous tournaments, should be given the responsibility.
Griezmann has scored 24 goals in 48 club appearances for Atletico Madrid this season. In France’s last game against the Netherlands, he had more shots and touches inside the box than any other player. If he appears in the game against Poland on Tuesday, he will surpass the record for most appearances by a French player in the national team’s history. With bet365’s +188 odds, there is a 31.8% probability of him scoring, and a $10 wager could result in a profit of $18.80 if he finds the back of the net.
Top odds: +188 at bet365
France vs. Poland best bet
France wins and doesn’t concede a goal
Poland has only won one final group stage match at the European Championships, which was in 2016 when they advanced to the knockout round. They have lost all other final group-stage matches (3). France has not won a final group stage match at a major tournament since the 2006 World Cup in Germany. However, they need a win to boost their chances of finishing at the top of Group D.
In their last game, France had 14 shots without scoring, their largest number of attempts without finding the net in a major tournament game since the 2016 final against Portugal, where they had 18 shots. Despite their struggles to score, Poland has allowed an average of 1.8 goals per game in their last four matches and has already conceded five goals in this tournament. On the other hand, the French defense has not conceded a goal in four matches, showcasing their superiority. With DraftKings’ odds at -110, implying a 52.4% probability, a $10 bet could result in a profit of $9.09 if successful.
Top odds: -110 available at DraftKings
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France vs. Poland game info
- When: Tuesday, June 25 (noon ET)
- Where: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund, Germany)
- How to watch: Fox Sports (U.S.), TSN (Canada)
- Favorite: France (-340 via DraftKings)
Predictions for the France-Poland match were made on Sunday at 2 p.m. ET.
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