UFC 300: Gaethje vs. Holloway Prediction, Expert Pick & Odds
The headline fight for UFC 300 will showcase a matchup between top lightweight contender Justin Gaethje and former featherweight champion Max Holloway at 155 pounds, competing for the promotion’s BMF title. We will make our Gaethje vs. Holloway prediction by analyzing the odds provided by our top UFC betting sites.
Justin Gaethje is back after a year away and ready to take on former featherweight champion Max Holloway in a highly anticipated fight on the main card of UFC 300 this Saturday.
In his last fight, Gaethje delivered a brutal head kick to knock out Dustin Poirier, after securing a decision win against Rafael Fiziev. The former interim lightweight champion is now set to face Holloway for the BMF title in his return to the division. Gaethje boasts a promotional record of 8-4, with six of those wins coming by knockout.
Similar to his dance partner, Holloway has recently achieved two victories in 2023. He secured a decision win against Arnold Allen in April and then retired Chan Sung Jung with a KO in August. The former featherweight champion last fought in the lightweight division five years ago at UFC 236, where he lost an interim title fight to Dustin Poirier by unanimous decision.
Throughout the week, we have been monitoring the UFC 300 odds. Gaethje was initially favored at -160, while Holloway was the underdog at +120. The betting lines on our top sports betting sites have remained consistent. DraftKings currently has Gaethje at -162 and Holloway at +136, just two days away from the highly anticipated UFC event at T-Mobile Arena.
Here is our prediction for the Gaethje vs. Holloway fight at UFC 300, along with our Pereira vs. Hill prediction and UFC 300 predictions. Odds are provided by our top sports betting sites, and confidence levels are rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.
Gaethje vs. Holloway prediction for UFC 300
Gaethje to win ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The most favorable odds are -155 at Caesars.
In a matchup between two high-volume strikers, expect plenty of action early on. Gaethje will look to show Holloway the difference in power when moving up a weight class, just as Poirier did in their fight in 2019.
Although Holloway has shown impressive volume striking skills throughout his career, he struggled to keep Poirier at bay and was rocked multiple times during their fight. His punches lack the necessary power to keep fighters like Gaethje at bay, let alone put them on the defensive. In the past, opponents like Volkanovski have found success by targeting Holloway’s legs, and with Gaethje known for his devastating low kicks, I believe he will use this to his advantage. Gaethje is likely to focus on chopping away at Holloway’s legs to limit his mobility, ultimately leading to Holloway’s first loss via strikes.
Caesars is providing the best value for a Gaethje win at -155 on their top sports betting apps, with BetMGM and DraftKings slightly behind at -159 and -162. Gaethje’s impressive record of 20 career knockouts and raw power make a prop bet on a 21st stoppage victory very appealing. DraftKings, BetMGM, and bet365 are all offering a Gaethje KO/TKO at a favorable +150 odds.
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Gaethje vs. Holloway tale of the tape
| Justin Gaethje | Max Holloway | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Age | 32 |
| 5’11” | Height | 5’11” |
| 155 lbs. | Weight | 155 lbs. |
| 70″ | Reach | 69″ |
| 25-4-0 | Record | 25-7-0 |
Gaethje vs. Holloway moneyline odds
| Fighter | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaethje | -162 | -178 | -159 | -155 | -163 |
| Holloway | +136 | +138 | +130 | +130 | +137 |
Despite their different weight classes, Gaethje and Holloway have both consistently competed against top-level opponents in the UFC. This is why the betting lines for their upcoming fight have remained so close and stable.
No matter if you’re expecting intense aggression from Gaethje or a surprise win from the former featherweight champion, our top sportsbooks offer great value. A win for the lightweight fighter offers decent odds, with the best line being -155 at Caesars. The odds for a Holloway upset range from +130 to +138 at FanDuel.
Gaethje vs. Holloway fight info
- When: Saturday, April 13
- Time: Early prelims at 6 p.m. ET; main card at 10 p.m. ET
- Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nev.
- How to watch: ESPN/ESPN+ (early prelims, prelims), Pay-per-view (main card)
The Gaethje-Holloway pick was made on Friday at 12:06 a.m. Eastern Time.
Here are our best UFC betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Underscoreg Promos (U.S. only)
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