UFC 300: Gaethje vs. Holloway Prediction, Expert Pick & Odds
Our prediction for the main event at UFC 300 is a bout between lightweight contender Justin Gaethje and former featherweight champion Max Holloway. The fight will be for the promotion’s BMF crown at 155 pounds. We have analyzed the odds from our top UFC betting sites to make our Gaethje vs. Holloway prediction.
Justin Gaethje is set to make his return after a year away from the octagon to take on former featherweight champion Max Holloway in a highly anticipated bout on the main card of UFC 300 this Saturday.
Gaethje’s last fight was a knockout victory over Dustin Poirier with a head kick, following a decision win against Rafael Fiziev. The former interim lightweight champion is set to face Holloway for the BMF title in his return to the division. Gaethje has a promotion record of 8-4, with six wins coming by knockout.
Similar to his dance partner, Holloway has recently achieved two victories in 2026. In April, he secured a decision win against Arnold Allen, followed by a knockout victory over Chan Sung Jung in August. While the featherweight champion last fought at lightweight in UFC 236 five years ago, where he lost to Dustin Poirier in an interim title match by unanimous decision.
Throughout the week, we have been monitoring the UFC 300 odds closely. Gaethje initially started as a -160 favorite with Holloway as a +120 underdog. The betting lines on our top sports betting sites have remained consistent since then. As of less than 48 hours before the UFC’s milestone event at T-Mobile Arena, DraftKings has Gaethje at -162 and Holloway at +136.
In addition to our Pereira vs. Hill and UFC 300 predictions, we are also providing our prediction for the Gaethje vs. Holloway fight at UFC 300. Our odds come from the top sports betting sites and our confidence level is rated on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Gaethje vs. Holloway prediction for UFC 300
Gaethje to win ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Top odds: -155 at Caesars Palace.
In a matchup between two high-volume strikers, both known for landing over seven significant strikes per minute, expect an action-packed fight with plenty of punches thrown. Just like Poirier did in their fight in 2019, Gaethje is likely to show Holloway that the power of punches is different when moving up a weight class.
Holloway faced multiple challenges during his fight with Poirier, showing that while he has a strong striking game, he lacks the knockout power to keep Gaethje on the defensive. Past opponents, like Volkanovski, have targeted his legs successfully, and with Gaethje’s formidable low kicks, it’s likely he will use them to limit Holloway’s movement and ultimately secure a victory by strikes, handing the former champ his first loss.
Caesars is providing the best value for a Gaethje win at -155 on their top sports betting apps, with BetMGM and DraftKings offering slightly higher odds at -159 and -162. Considering Gaethje’s impressive record of 20 knockouts and superior power, a prop bet on him getting his 21st stoppage victory is particularly enticing. DraftKings, BetMGM, and bet365 all have odds of +150 for a Gaethje KO/TKO.
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Gaethje vs. Holloway tale of the tape
| Justin Gaethje | Max Holloway | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Age | 32 |
| 5’11” | Height | 5’11” |
| 155 lbs. | Weight | 155 lbs. |
| 70″ | Reach | 69″ |
| 25-4-0 | Record | 25-7-0 |
Gaethje vs. Holloway moneyline odds
| Fighter | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaethje | -162 | -178 | -159 | -155 | -163 |
| Holloway | +136 | +138 | +130 | +130 | +137 |
Despite being in different weight classes, Gaethje and Holloway have consistently competed against top-level opponents in the UFC. This is why the betting odds for their upcoming fight have remained close and stable.
If you’re expecting intense action from Gaethje or hoping for a surprise win from the former featherweight champion, our top sportsbooks offer great value. A win for the lightweight contender comes with decent odds, with the best line at -155 at Caesars. On the other hand, the odds for a Holloway upset range from +130 to +138 at FanDuel.
Gaethje vs. Holloway fight info
- When: Saturday, April 13
- Time: Early prelims at 6 p.m. ET; main card at 10 p.m. ET
- Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nev.
- How to watch: ESPN/ESPN+ (early prelims, prelims), Pay-per-view (main card)
The Gaethje-Holloway pick was finalized on Friday at 12:06 a.m. Eastern Time.
Here are our best UFC betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
*Bonuses cannot be redeemed in Ontario. If you are 21 or over and have a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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