Makhachev vs. Poirier Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: UFC 302
Check out our prediction for the Makhachev vs. Poirier lightweight championship bout at UFC 302, taking place at Prudential Center. Our prediction is based on the odds from top UFC betting sites.
Islam Makhachev is scheduled to defend his lightweight title for the third time this Saturday against Dustin Poirier at the Prudential Center in Newark, N.J., after successfully defending it twice against Alexander Volkanovski.
In late 2022, Makhachev secured the belt by defeating Charles Oliveira with a submission. He now enters this fight riding a remarkable 13-fight win streak, with eight of those wins coming by stoppage.
Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier (22-7) will face his opponent in the Octagon this Saturday. Poirier’s most recent bid for the lightweight title ended in late 2021 when Oliveira submitted him.
The beloved fighter has been trading wins and losses in his most recent four bouts, but he made a triumphant comeback at UFC 299 in March by securing a knockout win over Benoit Saint-Denis. This victory has granted him another opportunity to compete for the undisputed lightweight championship.
Here is our top prediction and expert picks for the Makhachev vs. Poirier UFC fight, including odds from our recommended sports betting sites and confidence ratings on a 1-5 star scale.
Makhachev vs. Poirier prediction and pick
- Fight prediction: Makhachev moneyline (-588 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Makhachev by submission (-105 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Makhachev vs. Poirier fight analysis
While we all wish to see Poirier become the lightweight champion before he retires, it is unlikely that this dream will come true if he has to face Makhachev.
The plan for a Makhachev win has already been laid out by his cornerman and sambo expert Khabib Nurmagomedov, who dominated Poirier at UFC 242 in 2019. With exceptional wrestling, strong top control, and a wide range of submission moves, Makhachev should quickly assert his dominance by taking the fight to the ground and controlling Poirier against the cage. He will look to neutralize Poirier’s offense and work towards securing a submission victory.
While Poirier is still considered a top lightweight fighter with a strong striking ability and underrated scrambling skills, he has struggled against superior grapplers in the past. Makhachev, with a significant strike defense of over 60 percent, will make it difficult for Poirier to land clean shots. Therefore, it is likely that Makhachev will stick to his strengths and prevent Poirier from achieving a satisfying victory.
Due to Makhachev’s impressive win streak, Poirier’s recent loss to his teammate, and the latter’s tendency to struggle in high-pressure situations, the odds for this matchup heavily favor Makhachev. FanDuel has Makhachev listed at an overwhelming -650 for a straight victory as of Friday morning. The other top sportsbooks offer slightly better odds, with BetMGM leading at -588 for a successful title defense by the champ.
Top odds: Makhachev moneyline is -588 at BetMGM.
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Makhachev vs. Poirier best bet
Given the formidable striking skills of Poirier, Makhachev would be wise to avoid keeping this fight on the feet. Makhachev’s grappling abilities are impressive, with an average of 3.17 takedowns per 15 minutes, a 60 percent success rate, and multiple submission wins in his recent fights.
After the fight goes to the ground, expect Makhachev to control Poirier’s movements and land strikes from the top position for a round or two. He will likely finish the fight with an arm-triangle choke, securing his 12th submission victory of his career.
The odds for Makhachev to win by submission are more favorable compared to his moneyline, making it a good choice for bettors. As of Friday morning, DraftKings has the submission line at -130, while bet365 offers the best value at -105.
Top chances: Makhachev to win by submission (-105 odds on bet365)
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Makhachev vs. Poirier odds
The odds according to BetMGM as of Friday are:
| Makhachev | Method of victory | Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| -588 | Win outright | +425 |
| +275 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +650 |
| +500 | Win by unanimous decision | +1400 |
| +5000 | Draw | +5000 |
Makhachev vs. Poirier tale of the tape
| Makhachev | Poirier | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 35 |
| 5 foot 10 | Height | 5 foot 9 |
| 155 lbs. | Weight | 155 lbs. |
| 70.5 in. | Reach | 73 in. |
| 25-1 | Record | 30-8 |
Makhachev vs. Poirier fight info
- When: Saturday, June 1
- Where: Prudential Center, Newark, N.J.
- How to watch: ESPN+, PPV
- Favorite: Makhachev -588 (via BetMGM)
The decision on the Makhachev-Poirier fight was announced on Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern Time.
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