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UFC Best Bets Today: Top Picks, Predictions for UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura

Ramirez Madeline

Updated as of July 22, 2023 at 10:50 AM EDT • Read time: 3 minutes and 41 seconds. Find more information on Twitter and Google News.

UFC predictions
UFC predictions

Tom Aspinall, an Englishman, will face off against Marcin Tybura in the main event of UFC Fight Night: London. We will analyze the odds from our top sports betting apps to determine our best UFC bets for the event.

Aspinall’s promising journey towards UFC success came to a halt in July when he sustained a severe knee injury just 15 seconds into a fight against Curtis Blaydes. Before this setback, the 30-year-old British fighter appeared to be on the path to a title shot, with eight consecutive wins under his belt, including impressive victories over Andrei Arlovski, Serghei Spivak, and Alexander Volkov.

On the other hand, Tybura has experienced a remarkable transformation in his career, turning his UFC record from mediocre to impressive with seven wins in his last eight fights. He has secured notable victories over Ben Rothwell, Blagoy Ivanov, Alexandr Romanov, Walt Harris, and the mentioned Spivak during this successful streak.

In addition to Saturday’s lineup, there will be a flyweight fight between Molly McCann and Julija Stoliarenko, as well as a grappling match featuring Paul Craig and Andre Muniz.

Here are our top UFC betting picks for UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura, with confidence ratings based on a 1-to-5-star scale and odds from our recommended sports betting sites.

UFC London best bets

  • Winning method: Tom Aspinall to win via KO/TKO (-150 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Moneyline: Molly McCann (-210 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Moneyline: Joel Alvarez (-195 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura schedule and odds

Odds via DraftKings

  • Jafel Filho (-110) vs. Daniel Barez (-110)
  • Shauna Bannon (+130) vs. Bruna Brasil (-150)
  • Chris Duncan (-150) vs. Yanal Ashmouz (+130)
  • Ketlen Vieira (-145) vs. Pannie Kianzad (+125)
  • Makhmud Muradov (-365) vs. Bryan Barberena (+300)
  • Michael Parkin (+135) vs. Jamal Pogues (-155)
  • Marc Diakiese (+170) vs. Joel Alvarez (-200)
  • Danny Roberts (-130) vs. Jonny Parsons (+110)
  • Davey Grant (+120) vs. Daniel Marcos (-140)
  • Lerone Murphy (-140) vs. Josh Culibao (+120)
  • Jai Herbert (+145) vs. Fares Ziam (-170)
  • Paul Craig (+190) vs. Andre Muniz (-225)
  • Nathaniel Wood (-210) vs. Andre Fili (+180)
  • Molly McCann (-200) vs. Julija Storliarenko (+170)
  • Tom Aspinall (-475) vs. Marcin Tybura (+380)

UFC top picks for Aspinall vs. Tybura

Winning method: Tom Aspinall to win via KO/TKO (-150 FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Aspinall outclasses Tybura in skill level. The dominant English fighter is more precise in striking (65% compared to Tybura’s 48%), throws more strikes per minute (7.41 significant strikes to Tybura’s 3.55), and excels in wrestling (averaging four takedowns per 15-minute fight compared to Tybura’s 1.39). Additionally, Aspinall has superior takedown defense and takes less damage overall.

While it may not be worth betting on Aspinall to win outright at odds of around -500, there is potential value in betting on him to secure a dominant victory. Aspinall has never gone to a decision in his fights, with nine of his 12 career wins coming by way of knockout or technical knockout. Additionally, Tybura has shown vulnerability to strikes in his losses, with four out of his seven defeats coming via KO/TKO. This sets the stage for a potentially brutal finish in favor of Aspinall.

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Moneyline: Molly McCann (-210 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Stoliarenko has had difficulties making weight in previous fights, making her move to flyweight surprising. With a record of 1-4 in the UFC, this seems like a fight designed to showcase McCann, who will aim to put on an impressive performance for her hometown fans.

Known for his aggressive fighting style and willingness to engage in a brawl, “Meatball” is a powerful striker with superior accuracy and a higher output than his opponent. Stoliarenko, on the other hand, is skilled in submissions but lacks the wrestling ability to consistently take McCann down. While McCann has a history of finishing fights with six KO/TKO victories, I believe Stoliarenko has the endurance to last the full 15 minutes of the bout.

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Moneyline: Joel Alvarez (-195 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Marc Diakiese has not maintained the same level of dynamism that propelled him to three consecutive victories in the Octagon. While he still possesses the ability to deliver powerful strikes and impactful shots, he has recently focused more on his wrestling skills. This shift in strategy may be advantageous against opponents like Alvarez, who has not successfully defended any takedown attempts in his UFC career. However, it is possible that Diakiese’s wrestling-oriented approach is intentional, at least in certain situations.

Alvarez is a skilled grappler with a natural talent for securing limbs or necks. With 16 submission wins out of 19 career victories, including two in the UFC, the 30-year-old Spaniard is expected to dominate Diakiese on the ground for 15 minutes. I predict “El Fenomeno” will either win by unanimous decision or secure a submission in the middle to late rounds.

UFC top betting picks for July 21, 2023 at 6:30 p.m. Eastern Time.

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Written By:
Ramirez Madeline
A sportswriter for more than a decade, Ramirez Madeline was once voted “World’s 78th Greatest Lover” by ‘Relatively Attractive People Magazine’.* After covering nearly every sport under the sun for theScore, Smith settled in as head MMA writer where he helped shape the company’s coverage and establish its combat sports identity. Since then, he’s dipped his toes (cannonballed) into the world of betting, where he specializes in the UFC and NHL. Constantly chasing that gigantic Parlay Dragon, Smith was devastated when a Leon Edwards head kick completely obliterated a recent five-leg parlay. You can read his rantings and ravings on Twitter @Heldrificus. *Not a real publication.