Pereira vs. Prochazka Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: UFC 303

Get a preview of the Pereira vs. Prochazka fight at UFC 303 in Las Vegas, including our prediction based on the odds from top UFC betting sites.

Due to a broken toe forcing Conor McGregor out of Saturday’s scheduled main event against Michael Chandler, Alex Pereira will now be headlining UFC 303 with a title defense in the Light Heavyweight division against Jiri Prochazka. Pereira previously defeated Prochazka to capture the crown at UFC 295 last November.

Pereira achieved a rare accomplishment by becoming the only fighter to hold both the UFC Middleweight and Light Heavyweight championships. He accomplished this feat in just seven fights over two years. Pereira defended his light heavyweight title with a first-round knockout of Jamahal Hill. With a record of 10-2 and eight wins by KO/TKO, Pereira is now heading to Vegas for his next fight.

In regards to Saturday’s short-notice main event, Prochazka is looking to reclaim the divisional title just three months after defeating Aleksandar Rakic with a second-round TKO. The Czech fighter initially won the championship by submitting Glover Teixeira in June 2022, but had to relinquish it due to a shoulder injury later that year.

After losing to Pereira, his victory over Rakic at UFC 300 not only put him back on track but also improved his promotional record to 4-1, with all of his fights ending before the final bell.

Throughout the week, we have been providing coverage of all the UFC 303 odds.

Pereira vs. Prochazka prediction and pick

(odds available on our top sports betting sites; rate your confidence on a scale of 1 to 5 stars)

• Fight prediction: Pereira moneyline (-145 via betMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• My best bet: Pereira by KO/TKO (+125 via betMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Pereira vs. Prochazka fight analysis

Because the first matchup between the pair was so recent, I anticipate that Saturday’s rematch will unfold in a very similar way.

In a showdown between a precise kickboxer in Pereira and a risky dynamo in Prochazka, Pereira emerges as the dominant force with superior accuracy and defense. Pereira lands more than 60 percent of his strikes and dodges over half of his opponent’s, while Prochazka’s defense falls short at just 41 percent.

Although Prochazka’s movement, pressure, and striking abilities are impressive, Pereira, as the more skilled technician, should focus on analyzing his opponent’s movements and using feints in the first round. Once Pereira has figured out Prochazka’s timing, expect him to capitalize on one of Prochazka’s daring entrances and retain the light heavyweight title for Brazil in a ruthless manner.

Pereira was considered the slight favorite going into fight week for his rematch with the challenger, and the betting lines for Saturday’s matchup have remained mostly consistent. Several top sportsbooks have the defending light heavyweight champion listed at a solid -148, with BetMGM currently offering the best odds for the favorite at -145 as of Friday morning.

Forecast: Pereira is favored to win with a moneyline of -145 on BetMGM.

Pereira vs. Prochazka best bet

Almost every prop line in this matchup is worth considering, but I would recommend steering clear of the round props and instead focusing on Pereira’s preferred method of victory. With both fighters having high knockout rates (80% for Pereira and 87% for Prochazka) and aggressive fighting styles, I anticipate Saturday’s match ending with one of them knocked out.

Although preparing for an unpredictable and versatile attack like Prochazka’s is challenging, Pereira’s stoicism and strong fundamentals should help him withstand any initial onslaught from the Czech challenger. Once he navigates through the early storms, Pereira will be able to find the perfect timing for his patented left hook and other counters, causing Prochazka to regret his reckless approach. While Pereira may take a few hits in the process, he is expected to decisively win the exciting matchup and leave Prochazka defeated on the canvas, just as he did in their previous encounter late last year.

By Friday morning, the odds of a ninth career KO/TKO for the current champion are looking good, with some top sports betting apps offering a Pereira stoppage via strikes at +110. However, BetMGM stands out with better odds, providing a Pereira KO/TKO at +125.

Top choice: Pereira to win by KO/TKO (+125 odds at BetMGM)

Pereira vs. Prochazka odds

As of Friday, odds from BetMGM.

Pereira vs. Prochazka tale of the tape

Pereira vs. Prochazka fight info

• When: Saturday, June 29, with main card starting at 10 p.m. ET
• Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
• How to watch: Early Prelims and Prelims – ESPN+; Main Card – Pay-per-view
• Favorite: Pereira -145 (via BetMGM)

This product is not meant for MAAffiliate disclosure: Underscoreg Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook.

The pick for Pereira vs. Prochazka was made on Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern Time.

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