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Poirier vs. Gaethje Odds, Picks, Predictions: New BMF to be Crowned at UFC 291

Ramirez Madeline

Updated: July 29, 2023 at 6:34 PM EDT • Read time: 2 minutes and 39 seconds. Find more information on Twitter and Google News.

Dustin Poirier features in our Poirier vs. Gaethje picks
Dustin Poirier poses during a ceremonial weigh in for UFC 264 at T-Mobile Arena on July 9, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Stacy Revere/Getty Images/AFP

In the main event of UFC 291 on Saturday night, Dustin Poirier will face off against Justin Gaethje for a new title, pitting two highly ranked lightweights and former interim champions against each other. Our Poirier vs. Gaethje UFC picks are highlighted here, with odds sourced from the top sportsbooks in our full UFC 291 best bets selection.

The BMF title may seem like a flashy gimmick at first glance, just a belt to award after a fight where neither fighter has held a major championship. However, this could change on Saturday night.

Although the winner may not receive any tangible rewards aside from the victory itself, both Poirier and Gaethje are highly skilled lightweights, and a impressive win could elevate the victor to a title shot.

More than five years ago, Poirier and Gaethje went head-to-head in a thrilling and chaotic fight that ended with Poirier claiming victory with a devastating left hand. Since then, Gaethje’s path has closely resembled Poirier’s. Both fighters have achieved interim championship titles and have identical records of six wins and two losses. Notably, they have both suffered defeats to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira when vying for the undisputed championship.

Taking that into consideration, the question remains: will Poirier or Gaethje emerge as the newest BMF? Here is our top pick for the Poirier vs. Gaethje fight at UFC 291, with confidence levels rated on a 1-to-5-star scale based on odds from our preferred sports betting apps.

Poirier vs. Gaethje pick 

Over 2.5 rounds (-125 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Given the overwhelming firepower exhibited by both individuals, selecting either one as the victor may be viewed as a risky decision. On the other hand, opting not to declare a definitive winner could be perceived as a cautious or hesitant choice.

However, I believe there is merit in supporting the Over bet. Even though the first fight showed intense violence, Poirier did not finish Gaethje until early in the fourth round. Additionally, Poirier has gone to the third round in his last two fights and in five of his past seven fights. Gaethje, known for his durability, has gone to the judge’s scorecards in his last fight and has reached the third round three times in his last five fights.

I predict a similar outcome for Saturday night. These resilient fighters will exchange blows for at least three rounds before a victor is determined in the championship rounds.

Poirier vs. Gaethje best odds

PointsBet (-125)

DraftKingsFanDuelCaesars PointsBetbet365
-135-130-140-125-135

PointsBet stands out as the top choice with their Over at -125, compared to other sportsbooks listing it at -130 to -140. Given the unpredictable nature of this fight, the -125 odds for it to go just past the halfway point is a smart choice, especially when considering the outcome of the first fight.

If you believe Poirier will win again, you can bet on him at -150 with most major sportsbooks. Those rooting for the underdog can place a bet on Gaethje at +130 using our DraftKings promo code for the Poirier vs. Gaethje fight.

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Poirier vs. Gaethje fight info

Event Date: Saturday, July 29, 2023Broadcast: Pay-Per-View on ESPN+Venue: Delta Center in Salt Lake City, UT

The Poirier-Gaethje selection was finalized on July 28, 2023 at 11 p.m. Eastern Time.

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Written By:
Ramirez Madeline
A sportswriter for more than a decade, Ramirez Madeline was once voted “World’s 78th Greatest Lover” by ‘Relatively Attractive People Magazine’.* After covering nearly every sport under the sun for theScore, Smith settled in as head MMA writer where he helped shape the company’s coverage and establish its combat sports identity. Since then, he’s dipped his toes (cannonballed) into the world of betting, where he specializes in the UFC and NHL. Constantly chasing that gigantic Parlay Dragon, Smith was devastated when a Leon Edwards head kick completely obliterated a recent five-leg parlay. You can read his rantings and ravings on Twitter @Heldrificus. *Not a real publication.