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UFC 300 Predictions & Odds: Expert Picks for Saturday’s Full Card

Themi Alexis

Updated on April 13, 2024 at 4:55 PM EDT. Read time: 3 minutes and 63 seconds. Find more information on Twitter and Google News.

Justin Gaethje stands on the scale during the UFC 300 ceremonial weigh-in at MGM Grand Garden Arena as we look at our UFC 300 best bets.
Justin Gaethje stands on the scale during the UFC 300 ceremonial weigh-in at MGM Grand Garden Arena. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images/AFP.

The upcoming UFC event at Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena this Saturday is set to make history with a star-studded card including three title fights and an exciting bout between lightweight contenders. Our UFC 300 predictions are informed by the odds from top UFC betting sites.

In the main event of UFC 300, Alex Pereira will defend his title against Jamahal Hill. Hill is making his return to the octagon after stepping down from the throne last summer. The pay-per-view portion of the event will kick off at 10 p.m. ET at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.

Just before the UFC’s 300th event comes to a close, Weili Zhang will defend her strawweight title against Yan Xiaonan, a fellow Chinese fighter on a two-fight win streak. In another exciting matchup, Justin Gaethje will face former featherweight champion Max Holloway in a BMF title fight as Holloway moves up to the lightweight division.

Prior to the trio of championship fights, Charles Oliveira, a former lightweight titleholder, will compete against the in-form Arman Tsarukyan for another chance at the divisional title. Tsarukyan, who has won three consecutive fights, will be heading to Vegas for the matchup.

As we analyze the UFC 300 odds, we are also sharing our UFC predictions and picks for Saturday’s event. Our confidence in each pick is rated on a 1-to-5-star scale, with odds provided by the top sports betting sites.

UFC 300 predictions & picks

Check out our preview of the Pereira vs. Hill fight and our prediction for the main event.

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Expert UFC picks for Saturday

Gaethje by KO/TKO vs. Holloway (+150 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Top odds: +150 on DraftKings

Holloway’s chin and exceptional striking abilities have established him as a standout in the 145-pound division. However, in 2019, when he moved up to lightweight, his impressive skills were not enough to secure a win against Dustin Poirier. Poirier landed more powerful shots and rocked Holloway multiple times, ultimately earning a decision victory.

I anticipate a similar outcome in the fight against Gaethje, but I don’t think it will last the full 25 minutes.

Although Gaethje and Holloway both land an impressive seven significant strikes per minute, Gaethje has more power in his punches and utilizes brutal low kicks, a technique that has been effective against Holloway in the past.

I predict that Gaethje will be able to achieve what Poirier could not and deliver Holloway his first knockout or technical knockout loss. DraftKings is offering odds of +150 for this outcome, making it a tempting bet. A $10 bet would result in a $15 profit, with a 40% implied probability.

Check out our Gaethje vs. Holloway prediction and fight preview for further details.

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Figueiredo by KO/TKO or submission vs. Garbrandt (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The most favorable odds are -105 at DraftKings.

Placing a double chance bet can provide a smart way to minimize risk and maximize potential value. For instance, betting on Deiveson Figueiredo to win by stoppage in the 18th round at -105 odds is a solid choice for a heavy favorite.

Figueiredo has shown his ability to finish fights with nine KO/TKO victories and eight submissions in his career. His opponent on Saturday has a history of being susceptible to strikes, having folded to them in four of five losses and winning only three of his last eight fights. Given these factors, I believe the Brazilian has a good chance of increasing his stoppage total in this upcoming match.

No matter if he overwhelms a hesitant Cody Garbrandt with punches and elbows or submits him with a traditional grappling technique, Figueiredo is expected to secure his second consecutive win in the bantamweight division in a swift manner.

Placing a $10 bet at -105 results in a profit of $9.52 and implies odds of 51.2%.

Yusuff ML vs. Lopes (+125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Top odds: +125 on bet365

Diego Lopes has quickly become a must-watch fighter in the UFC after just three bouts, however, I believe he will face a tough challenge against the strategic Sodiq Yusuff, especially considering his previous loss to Movsar Evloev in 2023.

The Russian fighter maintained a calm and composed demeanor as Lopes unleashed a barrage of attacks, ultimately securing a decision victory. Similarly, Yusuff has demonstrated his ability to execute a game plan effectively in his three UFC victories by points. I believe he will capitalize on opportunities to counter Lopes’s aggressive approach, impressing the judges once again with his strategic performance.

Bet365 is the frontrunner for an upset in this exciting matchup, offering +125 odds which means a $10 bet could win you $12.50 with implied odds of 44.4%. If you believe Yusuff will win by decision for his seventh career victory, you can get solid +300 odds through DraftKings.

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Zhang vs. Xiaonan Under 3.5 Rounds (+115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Top odds: +115 as offered by bet365

Carla Esparza created the strategy for defeating Xiaonan in 2021, and I anticipate Zhang will follow suit when she steps into the cage for Saturday’s co-headliner.

The ex-champion quickly defeated Xiaonan in less than two rounds using a combination of takedowns and ground-and-pound. If Xiaonan’s quickness proves challenging for Zhang, anticipate Zhang to follow a similar strategy to Esparza, who has successfully executed numerous takedowns in previous fights against Amanda Lemos, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, and Rose Namajunas. Zhang is not only skilled in stand-up fighting and ground control, but she is also known for her ability to finish fights, with all 19 of her career stoppages occurring within 3.5 rounds.

This matchup makes the Under bet the most appealing, as I predict Zhang using her wrestling to exhaust Xiaonan before securing a submission or ground-and-pound victory.

UFC top picks placed on 4/13/24 at 12:10 a.m. Eastern Time.

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Written By:
Themi Alexis
Watson Zakary has specialized in MMA- and boxing-specific sports betting for the past several years, having joined Underscoreg Review in early 2022. An avid bettor himself, he routinely places his bets with the especially user-friendly bet365, DraftKings for its array of prop lines, and/or FanDuel for its ever-compelling odds. Before coming to SBR, Themistoklis spent another few years covering the MMA beat at theScore, contributing everything from news stories to features to comprehensive fight week coverage, and was a diehard follower of the sport long before he ever covered it professionally. His introduction to MMA came in 2007 with UFC 74, where Randy Couture defended his heavyweight crown with a thrashing of Gabriel Gonzaga. Themistoklis holds a Bachelor’s degree in Journalism from Toronto’s Centennial College. In addition to all things MMA, he is equally interested in both boxing and cinematic lore. If there’s any advice he can impart to new and experienced sports bettors, it’s to avoid betting against the greats and keep their options open, as committing to a single sportsbook can prove shortsighted and deprive them of access to the best available odds.