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UFC Predictions & Odds: Top Picks for UFC 301 – Pantoja vs. Erceg

Themi Alexis

Updated on May 4, 2024 at 5:59 PM EDT • Read time: 3 minutes and 64 seconds. For more information, visit our Twitter and Google News links.

Alexandre Pantoja celebrates after defeating UFC flyweight champion Brandon Moreno, as we examine the best UFC 301 predictions and picks for Saturday.
Alexandre Pantoja celebrates after defeating UFC flyweight champion Brandon Moreno during UFC 290 at T-Mobile Arena on July 8, 2023 in Las Vegas. Pantoja won the title by split decision. Photo by Steve Marcus/Getty Images via AFP.

This Saturday, the UFC makes its way to Rio de Janeiro for a Pay-Per-View event featuring a flyweight title fight between Alexandre Pantoja and Steve Erceg. We provide our top predictions for UFC 301 using the odds from our recommended UFC betting sites.

Alexandre Pantoja, a native Brazilian fighter, will be returning home on Saturday for his second title defense following his victory over Brandon Royval at UFC 296 in December. He is set to face Steve Erceg in the main event of UFC 301, which will take place at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The main card is scheduled to start at 10 p.m ET.

Pantoja, 34, defeated Brandon Moreno in a thrilling match five months before his victory in December to become the champion. He goes into Saturday’s main event with a winning streak of five fights and a UFC record of 11-3. On the other hand, Erceg is aiming for UFC gold in only his fourth promotional fight, having previously defeated David Dvorak and Alessandro Costa before earning a spot in Rio with a knockout victory over Matt Schnell just two months ago.

Former featherweight champion Jose Aldo, who hails from Rio, comes out of retirement after 20 months to face the impressive Jonathan Martinez in the bantamweight co-main event. Martinez has won six consecutive fights leading up to this matchup.

Below are our predictions and picks for UFC 301 happening this Saturday. We have gathered the odds from top sports betting sites and rated our pick confidence on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

UFC 301 predictions & picks

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Top UFC picks for UFC 301

Pichel ML vs. Bonfim ⭐⭐⭐

Top chances: +410 on DraftKings

Although Vinc Pichel may be past 40, he is still tough, resilient, and has the potential to surprise a strong favorite like Ismael Bonfim with his physical fighting style.

In his previous fight, Bonfim was easily defeated and outmatched by Benoit Saint-Denis. Considering Pichel’s track record of averaging three takedowns per 15 minutes and successfully executing at least one in five of his seven UFC victories, I anticipate he will likely dominate Bonfim in a similar fashion.

The 41-year-old is confident in his footwork to establish his wrestling game plan. Once Bonfim is on the ground, Pichel will suffocate him with relentless strikes and exhaust him to secure a victory and return to the win column.

Pichel is considered a heavy underdog in every major betting line, with DraftKings offering the most enticing payout at +410.

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Pantoja vs. Erceg Under 3.5 Rounds ⭐⭐⭐

Top odds: +124 on DraftKings

Many flyweights have exceptional cardio and are used to fighting long distances, but I believe the main event fighters on Saturday will settle their matchup before the full 25 minutes.

Wherever the fight takes place, Pantoja and Erceg are evenly matched with their strong grappling skills and striking abilities. The challenger’s sharp boxing complements Pantoja’s aggressive style, and with a total of 16 submission victories between them, fans can expect plenty of exciting grappling exchanges and submission attempts in this matchup.

Additionally, Pantoja and Erceg are known for their high finishing rates in their respective weight classes, totaling 26 stoppage victories between them. Whether the title stays with the local favorite or goes to Australia with Erceg, these flyweights are likely to have a quick night of work. You can take advantage of the Under on 3.5 rounds at an appealing +124 odds with DraftKings.

Pereira by KO/TKO vs. Potieria ⭐⭐⭐

FanDuel offers the best odds at -120.

Michel Pereira’s third UFC fight as a middleweight won’t be against tougher competition, as he will face Ihor Potieria, who has lost three of his last five fights against average opponents.

Therefore, while the odds for a straight Pereira win may not be great, his track record of winning by knockout or TKO is certainly worth noting. Pereira has knocked out 11 opponents, while Potieria has been defeated by strikes in all three of his UFC losses and four out of five career defeats.

Despite Potieria’s persistence as a striker, Pereira, known for his showmanship, is expected to be the one to finally make him pay for it in a brutal way. Pereira is favored to achieve his 12th career KO/TKO, with odds ranging from -120 to -150. FanDuel has the lowest odds in this range.

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Brener vs. Orolbai Doesn’t Go the Distance ⭐⭐⭐

Top odds available at +100 on DraftKings.

Similar to the ending of UFC 301, this lightweight fight is expected to provide the judges with a respite, regardless of the venue.

Elves Brener and Myktybek Orolbai are skilled in both striking and grappling, with Brener earning his last two wins by KO/TKO and 11 wins by submission, and Orolbai having six knockouts and five submission victories in his career.

Brener may have 14 of the pair’s 25 stoppages, but based on his dominant win over Uros Medic in late 2023, Orolbai should be the one to dictate the action. This lightweight clash between Brener and Orolbai has the potential to unfold in various ways, and it’s clear that these two fighters won’t need the full 15 minutes to determine the superior athlete, whether it be through top control on the ground or pushing the pace standing up.

The best UFC bets were placed on Saturday at 12:05 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Themi Alexis
Watson Zakary has specialized in MMA- and boxing-specific sports betting for the past several years, having joined Underscoreg Review in early 2022. An avid bettor himself, he routinely places his bets with the especially user-friendly bet365, DraftKings for its array of prop lines, and/or FanDuel for its ever-compelling odds. Before coming to SBR, Themistoklis spent another few years covering the MMA beat at theScore, contributing everything from news stories to features to comprehensive fight week coverage, and was a diehard follower of the sport long before he ever covered it professionally. His introduction to MMA came in 2007 with UFC 74, where Randy Couture defended his heavyweight crown with a thrashing of Gabriel Gonzaga. Themistoklis holds a Bachelor’s degree in Journalism from Toronto’s Centennial College. In addition to all things MMA, he is equally interested in both boxing and cinematic lore. If there’s any advice he can impart to new and experienced sports bettors, it’s to avoid betting against the greats and keep their options open, as committing to a single sportsbook can prove shortsighted and deprive them of access to the best available odds.