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UFC Predictions & Odds: Expert Picks for UFC 302 – Makhachev vs. Poirier

Themi Alexis

Updated as of June 1, 2024 at 5:54 PM EDT. Read time: 3 minutes and 45 seconds. Find more information on Twitter and Google News.

Islam Makhachev faces off with Dustin Poirier during the UFC 302 ceremonial weigh-in, and we provide our top predictions and expert picks for UFC 302.
Islam Makhachev faces off with Dustin Poirier during the UFC 302 ceremonial weigh-in. Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images via AFP.

Get a sneak peek at our UFC predictions and expert picks for UFC 302 at New Jersey’s Prudential Center this Saturday, all based on the odds from our top UFC betting sites.

UFC 302 is set to deliver an exciting main event as Islam Makhachev puts his lightweight title on the line against former interim champion Dustin Poirier.

The reigning lightweight champion has successfully defended his title twice against Alexander Volkanovski and is entering Newark with an impressive streak of 12 consecutive victories.

In contrast, Poirier has been trading wins and losses in his past four fights, but secured his opportunity in March by knocking out Benoit Saint-Denis.

Before that, however, former middleweight champion Sean Strickland is focused on returning to the win column by defeating Paulo Costa.

Most recently, the California native lost the crown to Dricus du Plessis by split decision at UFC 297 in January. Costa’s latest fight was against ex-champ Robert Whittaker at UFC 298 in February, where he fell to Whittaker on points.

These are our UFC 302 predictions for the upcoming event in Newark, N.J. We have included odds from our top sports betting sites and rated our confidence level on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

UFC predictions & picks

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UFC 302 expert picks

Holland by submission vs. Oleksiejczuk ⭐⭐⭐⭐

With Michal Oleksiejczuk’s weaknesses in grappling and Kevin Holland’s expertise in securing submissions, the odds of a tapout victory for Holland are surprisingly high and too tempting to ignore.

Oleksiejczuk has struggled with his wrestling skills, losing five out of seven professional fights and four out of five UFC matches by submission. On the other hand, Holland is known for his ability to finish fights, boasting seven career submission victories.

Both fighters are skilled in striking, but with Holland having a seven-inch reach advantage, I predict he will use his striking to bring the fight to the ground. Once the fight goes to the ground, Holland’s long limbs will likely lead to a submission victory over Oleksiejczuk.

Top odds at +260 available on FanDuel.

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Makhachev by submission vs. Poirier ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While a straightforward victory for the highly favored lightweight champion may not yield a significant payout, the odds on his potential 12th career submission are much more intriguing. Makhachev has an impressive track record of finishing 11 opponents by tapout as a professional, including five during his current winning streak. Additionally, he has a solid success rate of 60% on his takedown attempts.

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In comparison, Poirier is a solid grappler, but he has been defeated in six out of eight career fights by submission and was overpowered by Makhachev’s teammate, Khabib Nurmagomedov, in 2019.

Assigned to face a skilled and experienced striker in Poirier, Makhachev should aim to emulate his coach’s tactics by taking the fight to the ground, dominating Poirier, and ultimately securing a submission victory with a chokehold.

I provided a more detailed analysis of this fight in my prediction for tonight’s main event between Makhachev and Poirier.

Top odds: +100 available on bet365

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Dawson vs. Solecki ends by submission ⭐⭐⭐⭐

In another fight centered around submissions, Grant Dawson and Joe Solecki are set to determine the outcome of their clash using their preferred method of winning.

Dawson and Solecki have secured 13 out of 20 and 9 out of 13 career victories, respectively. Despite the potential for dull grappler vs. grappler fights, these two fighters are expected to stick to their strengths in their upcoming bout, as both are known for their limited striking abilities.

Both lightweights have a low average of less than three significant strikes per minute, so they will likely want to take the fight to the ground. Once there, both fighters will be looking to gain back control in order to attempt a rear-naked choke.

Top odds at +230 are available on FanDuel.

Strickland vs. Costa goes the distance ⭐⭐⭐

Those looking to bet on this middleweight bout may find good value in wagering on the Over for 1.5 rounds, but a bet on a judges’ decision could lead to a more rewarding payout.

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Strickland faces a formidable opponent in Costa, who comes out strong and packs a punch. To win the co-main event on Saturday, Strickland will need to push his limits in terms of output and cardio. It’s likely that the judges will have to make a decision in this fast-paced fight.

The former champion has completed the full fight in eight out of 11 matches since transitioning from welterweight, while Costa has had decisions in his last three fights and four of his last five. Costa tends to perform best in the first couple of rounds, so expect Strickland to withstand an initial onslaught before unleashing his combinations from the second round onwards.

Nevertheless, even as Costa’s performance diminishes, he still delivers a powerful blow, and I predict that Strickland will approach the fight cautiously, resulting in a drawn-out battle that goes the distance.

The most favorable odds are +122 on FanDuel.

UFC 302 info

  • When: Saturday, June 1
  • Where: Prudential Center, Newark, N.J.
  • How to watch: ESPN+, PPV (main card begins at 10 p.m. ET)

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Written By:
Themi Alexis
Watson Zakary has specialized in MMA- and boxing-specific sports betting for the past several years, having joined Underscoreg Review in early 2022. An avid bettor himself, he routinely places his bets with the especially user-friendly bet365, DraftKings for its array of prop lines, and/or FanDuel for its ever-compelling odds. Before coming to SBR, Themistoklis spent another few years covering the MMA beat at theScore, contributing everything from news stories to features to comprehensive fight week coverage, and was a diehard follower of the sport long before he ever covered it professionally. His introduction to MMA came in 2007 with UFC 74, where Randy Couture defended his heavyweight crown with a thrashing of Gabriel Gonzaga. Themistoklis holds a Bachelor’s degree in Journalism from Toronto’s Centennial College. In addition to all things MMA, he is equally interested in both boxing and cinematic lore. If there’s any advice he can impart to new and experienced sports bettors, it’s to avoid betting against the greats and keep their options open, as committing to a single sportsbook can prove shortsighted and deprive them of access to the best available odds.