UFC Predictions & Odds: Expert Picks for UFC 303 – Pereira vs. Prochazka
Get a sneak peek at our UFC 303 predictions before the event takes place at Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena. We’ve based our predictions on the latest UFC 303 odds from top UFC betting sites.
The main event of the evening will feature a light heavyweight title fight between champion Alex Pereira and challenger Jiri Prochazka, which has been moved up on short notice due to a broken toe sidelining Conor McGregor. This change has resulted in the cancellation of the original UFC 303 main event where McGregor was set to face Michael Chandler.
Pereira is now focused on defending his title for the second time against the opponent he defeated last November. His first title defense came in April at UFC 300, where he knocked out Jamahal Hill. Prochazka, on the other hand, bounced back from his loss to Pereira with a second-round TKO victory over Aleksandar Rakic. This win came just moments before Pereira’s victory over Hill.
Former featherweight title challenger Brian Ortega will be facing Diego Lopes in the lightweight co-headliner on Saturday. Ortega ended a two-fight losing streak in February with a third-round submission victory over Yair Rodriguez. Meanwhile, Lopes has been on a roll with three consecutive first-round stoppages in the Octagon, most recently a TKO win over Sodiq Yusuff in just 89 seconds at UFC 300.
Below are our predictions and picks for UFC 303 happening this Saturday.
UFC 303 predictions & picks
View the odds on our top sports betting websites and choose your confidence level using a rating scale from 1 to 5 stars.
- Ortega ML vs. Lopes (+120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Pereira by KO/TKO vs. Prochazka (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jourdain vs. Silva Under 2.5 Rounds (+140 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Smith vs. Dolidze Under 1.5 Rounds (+155 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
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UFC 303 expert picks
Ortega ML vs. Lopes ⭐⭐⭐
As of Saturday morning, recency bias is evident as Ortega enters the cage as a slight underdog against an opponent with significantly less Octagon experience.
Despite Lopes impressing with three first-round stoppages, he has not defeated a top UFC featherweight in his four fights, leading me to believe that the level of competition he faces is important.
Despite enduring significant punishment in fights against Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski, Ortega continues to prove himself as a formidable opponent. He outstrikes his opponents at a rate of 4.07 significant strikes per minute and, like his opponents, has the ability to finish a fight in any location.
Assigned to set a quick pace, I observe Ortega enduring an initial challenge and guiding Lopes through the first round before demonstrating that there are different skill levels in this sport, whether it be in striking, grappling, or a combination of both.
Top chances: +120 at BetMGM
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Pereira by KO/TKO vs. Prochazka ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Pereira should aim to finish his second fight against Prochazka in a similar fashion to their first encounter, where he decisively defeated him seven months ago.
“Poatan” successfully lands over 60% of his significant strikes and defends half of the strikes thrown his way. Prochazka, on the other hand, struggles to defend against his opponents’ strikes, only blocking 41% of them due to his lack of control in the octagon.
Just like the current light heavyweight champion, Prochazka has the ability to finish his opponents with one strike, but his tendency to have too much fun during fights has resulted in costly mistakes on multiple occasions.
Pereira, known for his career as a kickboxer and superior striking abilities, should take advantage of Prochazka’s risky behavior and capitalize on his weaknesses once he has analyzed the situation. It is likely that Pereira will increase his 80% knockout rate and successfully defend the divisional title for Brazil.
DraftKings offers the best odds at +110.
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Jourdain vs. Silva Under 2.5 Rounds ⭐⭐⭐
Charles Jourdain has only been stopped once in seven career losses, but with Jean Silva seeking another quick finish, this featherweight bout is unlikely to go to the judges’ scorecards.
Jourdain, 28, has secured 13 of his 15 professional wins by stoppage, leaving just two decisions on his record. Silva, on the other hand, has finished 11 of his 12 victories without going past the second round. Jourdain averages over 5.5 significant strikes per minute, while Silva has nine career knockouts to his name. This featherweight bout is expected to be full of action and excitement.
Additionally, Jourdain and Silva have both secured victories with guillotine chokes, indicating that a quick tapout could be possible if one of them resorts to panic-wrestling. It is likely that this fight won’t go the full 15 rounds, making a bet on it ending by stoppage a valuable option. Ultimately, the Under bet at a favorable price is the recommended choice for this matchup.
DraftKings offers the best odds at +140.
Smith vs. Dolidze Under 1.5 Rounds ⭐⭐⭐
While Anthony Smith has a reputation for starting slow, the statistics for this matchup and the short-notice aspect make me believe that he and Roman Dolidze may have a quick night of work ahead of them.
To begin with, Smith has an impressive record of 35 stoppages in 38 career wins, with almost 30 of them coming in under 1.5 rounds. He has also been finished in 15 out of 19 professional losses. Dolidze, who is moving up 20 pounds to fight Smith on short notice, has 10 finishes in 12 wins, seven of which occurred in the first round.
Both fighters have strong striking abilities, but if Dolidze relies heavily on his wrestling like he did in his fights against Laureano Staropoli and John Allan, Smith may capitalize on this by aggressively seeking his 16th career submission win. This suggests that we may witness a quick stoppage in this fight, and I predict it will happen sooner rather than later.
Top odds: +155 on DraftKings
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