2024 U.S. Open Long-Shot Picks: Sleepers to Win at Pinehurst
While the U.S. Open usually favors top golfers, some have used it as a stepping stone to greater achievements. We are searching for the next breakout star with our long-shot picks and sleepers based on odds from top golf betting sites.
This week, a field of 156 players will compete at Pinehurst No. 2 in Moore County, North Carolina for the third major of 2024, the U.S. Open. Once again, Scottie Scheffler is the clear favorite according to U.S. Open odds.
Most names on the oddsboard will be looking to follow in the footsteps of Wyndham Clark, who won the 2023 U.S. Open as a long-shot at odds of +10000. Clark’s victory came shortly after his first PGA Tour win and propelled him to the fourth spot in the Official World Golf Ranking.
We have selected our expert picks for the U.S. Open and will now look for value in the sleeper market.
U.S. Open long-shot picks
- Sam Burns (+7500 via Caesars)
- Sepp Straka (+8000 via bet365)
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Sam Burns
Despite being a five-time PGA Tour winner, Burns has faced challenges in the four major tournaments throughout his career. He has missed the cut in three consecutive majors leading up to this week, with his best finish being T-20 in the 2022 PGA Championship. However, he has managed to make the weekend in his last two U.S. Open appearances, showing that his game is well-suited for the tough conditions of Pinehurst No. 2 this week.
Burns possesses a versatile skill set with excellent iron play and proficiency around the greens. Lately, he has demonstrated enhanced accuracy off the tee and ranks 11th on the PGA Tour in birdie-or-better percentage from distances of 200-plus yards. Additionally, he excels in sand play and consistently putts well on Bermuda greens.
The player ranked 27th in the Official World Golf Ranking recently finished tied for 15th in the Memorial Tournament, showcasing his impressive average of 1.11 true strokes gained: around-the-green per round. This skill will be crucial as he navigates the fast greens and thick rough in the upcoming tournament.
We are particularly interested in the contrast between the +5000 odds given by BetMGM for Burns to win the U.S. Open and the outlier +7500 price from Caesars. This represents a $250 difference on a $10 winning bet at either sportsbook, according to our odds converter.
Top odds: +7500 at Caesars Palace
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Sepp Straka
We continue to prioritize recency bias and are supporting Straka as a top-5 finisher last week. The two-time PGA Tour champion has a stronger major tournament record than Burns, with a second-place finish in last year’s Open Championship and a seventh-place finish in the 2023 PGA Championship.
Despite his consecutive missed cuts in the U.S. Open, we are focusing on his current form. Straka topped the field in driving accuracy and ranked eighth in strokes gained: tee-to-green at last week’s Signature Event. These have been consistent strengths for him in his last 15 rounds. Additionally, his scrambling has been impressive this season.
Straka has odds of +8000 at most sportsbooks, but DraftKings is offering +7000. I will place an each-way bet at bet365 with eight places to hedge against Scheffler and the favorites at the top of the oddsboard.
Highest odds: +8000 on bet365
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U.S. Open betting picks
- U.S. Open picks and predictions
- U.S. Open expert picks
- U.S. Open long-shot picks
- U.S. Open power rankings
- U.S. Open props picks
- U.S. Open odds
U.S. Open odds 2024 – Favorites
The odds were last updated at 6:50 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday.
| Name | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +280 | +280 | +333 | +250 ❄️ | +300 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1000 | +1000 | +1100 | +850 ❄️ | +1000 |
| Rory McIlroy (NI) | +1100 | +1000 | +1200 | +1000 | +1100 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1600 | +1400 | +1400 | +1100 ❄️ | +1400 |
| Viktor Hovland | +2000 | +1800 | +2000 | +1800 | +1600 ❄️ |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 | +1400 ❄️ | +1800 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +2000 | +2200 | +2000 | +2200 | +2000 |
| Brooks Koepka | +2200 | +2000 | +2200 | +1600 ❄️ | +2000 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +3500 | +4000 | +4500 | +3500 | +4000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +4000 | +4000 | +3300 | +3300 | +2800 ❄️ |
| Tiger Woods | +30000 | +40000 | +25000 | +40000 | +25000 |
Past U.S. Open winners
| Year | Name | Odds (as of Jan. 1) | Course |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Wyndham Clark | N/A (+10000 prior to Round 1) | Los Angeles Country Club |
| 2022 | Matt Fitzpatrick | +5000 | The Country Club |
| 2021 | Jon Rahm | +1200 | Torrey Pines |
| 2020 | Bryson DeChambeau | +3000 | Winged Foot Golf Club |
| 2019 | Gary Woodland | +8000 | Pebble Beach Golf Links |
| 2018 | Brooks Koepka | +4000 | Shinnecock Hills |
| 2017 | Brooks Koepka | +4000 | Erin Hills |
| 2016 | Dustin Johnson | +1500 | Oakmont Country Club |
| 2015 | Jordan Spieth | +800 | Chambers Bay |
Past U.S. Open long-shot winners
The odds were set before the start of Round 1 of the tournament.
- 2023: Wyndham Clark (+10000)
- 2019: Gary Woodland (+8000)
- 2012: Webb Simpson (+8000)
- 2010: Grame McDowell (+8000)
According to Ron Klos, the previous four golfers have all won the U.S. Open with odds exceeding +4000 since 2010. The average odds for winners during that time period were +4000, resulting in a $10 bet yielding a $400 profit.
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- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
*Bonuses cannot be used in Ontario. If you are over 21 and have a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Underscoreg Promos (U.S. only)
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